Political outsider strongly positioned in wide-open UT-4 primary
July 23, 2019Click here to download the PDF.
Echelon Insights surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters in Utah’s 4th Congressional district from July 17 to 21, 2019. The primary race is currently wide open, with 85% of likely primary voters expressing no preference in the race. All likely candidates start out with single digit support and, notably, the elected officials contemplating a run start out with very little name ID or base of support. On top of this, the current officeholders will have to contend with the fact that, when asked, Republican primary voters in this district would vastly prefer to nominate a political outsider with experience outside elected office (50%) to a political insider with experience in elected office (13%).
No candidate breaks single digits in a ballot test. As a Salt Lake City radio host, only Jay McFarland has name recognition beyond the other candidates tested, and this yields 7% support. It’s a wide open race, and a political outsider like Kathleen has a natural advantage in making the case to primary voters.
Q. If the Republican primary for Congress were being held today, for which candidate would you vote?
Unsure 85%
Jay McFarland 7%
Kim Coleman 3%
Kathleen Anderson 2%
Jefferson Moss 2%
Dan Hemmert 1%
The race is also wide open from a name ID standpoint. All likely candidates are tightly bunched together in terms of name identification, with McFarland at 42% and Kathleen at 35%. The number for other potential candidates are as follows: Coleman 32%, Moss 30%, and Hemmert 28%.
FAV
UNFAV
No opinion
heard of
Primary voters have a strongly favorable view of President Trump. While there has been some discussion of how Utah’s 4th district may differ from other places around the country in its views of President Trump, this is not backed up by current survey data. 81% of likely primary voters in our survey had a favorable view of the President, while 16% have an unfavorable view. And fully 61% of likely primary voters have a strongly favorable opinion.
Methodology
Echelon Insights interviewed 400 likely Republican primary voters in Utah’s 4th district from July 17 to 21, 2019, sampled off the Utah voter file. Interviews were conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) to landline telephones (65% of the sample) and via text-to-web technology to cell phones (35%). Results were weighted to the known demographic and turnout propensity characteristics of a June 2020 Republican primary electorate.
